Historic new way to fund UAW retiree health benefits may fall short on promises

If money runs out, 750K retired auto workers/spouses may have to rely on Medicare

VEBAs won't take effect until 2010, require court-approval process to begin

Sean McAlinden, Center for Automotive Research, says VEBA money will last

UAW cannot keep commitments w/o national healthcare program, say experts

Federal program would have to be initiated within 5-15 years, say experts

UAW, automakers won't reveal member ages, other crucial factors

Life expectancies, investment returns, health care cost inflation all factors

"They've [UAW] got ridiculous assumptions on health care costs. It's not even close to being realistic, it's preposterous." -- Lance Wallach, VEBA consultant, New York City area

"It [VEBA] will last 80 years because it is a Big Pile of money. GM retirees and the active UAW labor force are quite elderly. Eighty years from now, only a handful will be left--maybe no one." -- Sean McAlinden, chief economist, Center for Automotive Research