Monday, July 2, 2007
Bob's Market assessment for Dealers

Domestic truck values are holding strong in the wholesale market, but expect them to start loosing ground over the next few weeks as vehicle manufacturers continue to release new incentives to spur full size truck sales. Evidence of price softening on the truck prices is seen in real time industry market reports which are a direct reflection of what is happening in the auction lanes. We use "softening" because there have been fluctuations from week to week albeit the trend is definitely downward. New buyers entering the market for the full size truck segment is flat or behind.

Although the SUVs and trucks are not experiencing the dramatic crash in prices like last summer when gas prices skyrocketed, the larger SUVs e.g. Suburban is experiencing market lows.

I will close on a totally different but equally important note; we have been advised that the Federal Trade Commission is conducting field investigations at dealerships in Tennessee. The field investigators are looking for violations of the Used Car Rule-i.e. the Buyer's Guide e.g. window stickers. Compliance checks are reportedly taking place now. Please be reminded that for the purpose of the Used Car Rule, demonstrator vehicles are "used vehicles," and, thus, must display a properly completed "Buyer's Guide" on the vehicle when it is available for sale.

--Robert Sullivan, General Managing Partner, Chattanooga Auto Auction
Vehicle Segment Totals, Ranked by May 2007 Units Sales:

Source: Autodata Corp.

What does May sales data tell us about trends in vehicle segment buying?
  • Cars were up 6% in May, light trucks up about 4%
  • Crossover utility vehicles are the mega-hot segment now
  • Were up 28% over May 2006
  • Regular SUV segment was down 3%
  • Pickups are still doing well - up 3.5% from a year ago
  • Small cars doing best among the car segment

Top 20 Selling New Vehicles in US - May 2007:


Source: Autodata Corp.

Domestic pickups still at top of sales list, but for how much longer?
  • Interesting that Silverado is up so much but F Series is down
  • Silverado was redesigned and launched this year
  • Getting a lot of attention and buzz
  • GM also scored with Chevy Impala - up 50% since last year
  • The Prius had a huge month - up nearly 200% from a year ago
  • Toyota Tundra also scored big - up 122% from last year

U.S. Hybrid Sales - YTD Through May 2007:


Source: LA Times, Edmunds.com, EPA, Autodata

Honda is pulling the plug on the Accord hybrid
  • Its low sales volume isn’t worth the effort
  • Its EPA mileage rating not much higher than non-hybrid version
  • Prius is the clear leader in hybrid sales
  • Camry is No. 2, but is far behind in sales volume
  • The growth rates for Prius and Camry hybrids are strong this year
Two west coast AutoNation dealers have implemented hybrid and fuel-efficient vehicle marketing program:
  • AutoWest Auto Group and the Power Auto Group, both based in California, are rolling program out
  • The program highlights units that get fuel efficiency of at least 28 mpg
  • Some of the specific vehicles company officials mentioned as being part of the program were the Toyota Prius, Tacoma, Honda Civic Hybrid, Chevrolet Malibu, Mercedes-Benz Diesel, Ford Escape Hybrid and Dodge Grand Caravan

True Cost of Big Six Manufacturer Incentives - May 2007:


Source: Edmunds.com

What’s happening with new vehicle incentives?
  • Average incentive was $2,497 per vehicle in May
  • Up $44, or 1.8% from April 2007
  • And up $123, or 5.18% from May 2006
  • Summer incentives hike has started
  • Chrysler and Honda are up the most since May 2006
  • Ford and Nissan have dropped incentives from a year ago
  • Power Information Network reports that the large pickup segment is getting an incentive spike
  • Greatest price decline was Chevrolet Silverado 1500, followed by the Toyota Tundra

AutoPacific Annual Vehicle Satisfaction Awards - 2007

Source: Auto Pacific, Auto Remarketing

How AutoPacific puts its ratings together:
  • AutoPacific measures across 46 specific areas related to a vehicle's operation, comfort, safety and the overall purchase or lease experience
  • Ratings reflect input from buyers and lessees of new vehicles acquired September through December 2006
And what is significant about them:
  • Car ratings reflect broad range of domestic and import manufacturers
  • Truck ratings are more domestic-manufacturer focused
  • Hyundai is making a name for itself both in the car and crossover utility segments

Online Auto Buyer Leads & Conversions - 2001 to 2006

Source: NADA; Internet Retailer; eMarketer

What is happening with dealers and online sales conversion?
  • Local online advertising by automakers, dealers, and individual sellers will escalate
  • Going up to $4.2 billion in 2011 - up from $2.3 billion in 2006
  • Of the $7.8 billion spent on ads by dealers in 2006, Internet's share was 11.5%
  • Although visits by car shoppers are on the rise, conversion rates are not
  • Of the qualified leads these dealerships received - 52.9 in 2006, up from 29.5 in 2005 - conversion rate to sales dropped, from 26.4% in 2005 to 19.2% in 2006
  • Prompt follow-up with prospects does not appear to be the issue
  • Perhaps the responses themselves are turning away prospects
  • While the Internet has speeded up response time, that greater speed can reduce, rather than improve, the quality of communication

Top Consumer Preferences for Interior Styling

Source: Kelley Blue Book

Data that will help dealers better understand consumer interior styling preferences:
  • Kelley did Interior Styling market research study
  • Interior styling continues to be important factor for car buyers
  • It plays a significant role in overall cabin comfort
  • Shoppers ranked based on overall comfort, headroom, and legroom
  • Toyota finished first in 3 out of 7 vehicle categories
  • Mercedes, Cadillac, and Lexus also did well in rankings
Events Calendar:

July 3rd:Triad Financial, TitleMax, Auto Credit, Saturn of Chatt., Fairway Lending, Enterprise Rent-A-Car & Many More!

July 10th:Honda Financial - 150+, GSA, Triad Financial, Auto Credit, Wachovia, Fairway Lending, Enterprise Rent-A-Car, TitleMax & Many More!

July 17th:World Omni, Triad Financial, Auto Credit, Fairway Lending, Enterprise Rent-A-Car, TitleMax & Many More!

July 24th:Honda Financial - 150+, Triad Financial, Auto Credit, Wachovia, Fairway Lending, Enterprise Rent-A-Car, TitleMax & Many More!

July 31st:Triad Financial, Auto Credit, Fairway Lending, Enterprise Rent-A-Car, TitleMax & Many More!



SIGNIFICANT REMARKETING NEWS News digested 06/01/2007 -- 06/30/2007
1) Hybrid Residuals Hard to Predict
2) Prius Still Hot in California Despite Struggles Across US Market
3) Trucks and SUVs Are Back
4) Ford Shows Quality Improvement, Toyota Slips
5) Certified Sales Pick Up Again in May
6) Canadian Truckers See 'Normal Conditions' on Used Lots
7) BHPH Industry Takes Issue with Business Week Story
8) SUV Owners Turn to Internet to Sell Leases
9) KBB Ponders Ties Between Resale Value, Fatality Rates

1) Hybrid Residuals Hard to Predict

Situation
  • Automotive Lease Guide doesn't predict residuals for hybrids
  • Cites skimpy data on technology reliability, consumer demand
  • Will start predictions w/ 2008 models
Significant Points
  • Future of hybrid technology considered unknown
  • If alternative fuel catches on, movement will affect resale values
  • Uncertainties prompt insurance companies to cover only 70%-80% hybrid residual value
  • Gas-powered vehicles typically get 95-100% of projected residual value
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: Automotive News, June 11, 2007

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2) Prius Still Hot in California Despite Struggles Across US Market

Situation
  • Prices of used Priuses dropping across US; 2006 model down $4500 from Dec to May
  • Prices appear to drop more than normal depreciation, even more than other hybrids
  • 2006 Honda Civic Hybrid down $800 in same time span
  • But in CA, Prius w/ HOV-lane sticker commands about $4K more than regular Prius
2006 Toyota Prius
Significant Points
  • Black Book editor says price drop is combination of factors
  • Including incentives, fewer tax credits
  • CA no longer issuing HOV stickers to Prius owners
  • But vehicles w/ sticker can transfer to new owners
  • Prius w/ sticker in demand because solo drivers can cut commute time
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: Automotive News, June 11, 2007

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3) Trucks and SUVs Are Back

Situation
  • When gas price shock hit US last summer, most drivers wanted out of their SUVs and trucks
  • One year later, w/ gas prices still in the headlines, opposite appears to be happening
  • Thru May, truck / SUV sales up slightly at 3.48M compared to car sales, down 2.8% at 3.3M
  • Hybrids have seen sales increase modestly as a segment; make up 1.5% of all US car sales
  • Hybrid SUV sales have been even less racy; year-to-date hybrid SUVs just shy of 35K units
  • Ford Expedition, which gets sluggish 15 mpg, has seen vehicle sales shoot up 20% thru May
2007 Ford Expedition EL
Significant Points
  • Sales of larger vehicles continue to prosper
  • Automakers continue to rally behind SUVs w/ ads and incentives; demand yet to wane
  • Still pushing fuel efficiency
  • Betting consumers will, in time, trade down to crossover vehicles
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: Brandweek, June 11, 2007

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4) Ford Shows Quality Improvement, Toyota Slips

Situation
  • Ford took top honors in JD Power and Associates reliability survey
  • Last time US automaker topped survey was 1998, when Ford tied w/ Toyota and Honda
  • Ford bettered 1998 showing, earning top honors in 5 out of JD Power's 19 segments
  • Strategic Vision quality study: Toyota fell from winning 4 categories in 2006 to 1 in 2007
  • US automakers have found success in JD Power's Initial Quality Study
  • Limited success in long term as measured by JD Power's Vehicle Dependability Study
Significant Points
  • Ford's top finish significant; most expect Toyota to place in top spot
  • GM, Chrysler, Ford made big effort to match improved quality of Asian automakers
  • Too early to write off Toyota, expanding at blistering pace
  • Expansion making it harder to ensure its reputation for superior vehicle quality
  • Success in long-term quality has bigger impact on consumers' buying habits
  • Maintaining quality for longer benefits the bottom line by reducing costs
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: MSNBC, June 13, 2007

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5) Certified Sales Pick Up Again in May

Situation
  • Sales of certified used vehicles hit record high in March but fell in April
  • Then sales rebounded in May w/ 155,565 units
  • That's up 7.8% from over May 2006
  • May's daily selling rate of 5,983 vehicles was highest ever, says Autodata
Significant Points
  • Honda, Nissan, BMW, Porsche set all-time highs
  • Toyota had 2nd biggest month ever and highest daily selling rate
  • Mercedes-Benz, Audi up but VW, Jaguar, Land Rover down
  • Chrysler Group sold 11,253 units, up from 10,161 last year
  • GM up 5% over last year; YTD is up 4% and on record pace
  • Ford had best month since July 2006
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: Auto Remarketing, June 7, 2007

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6) Canadian Truckers See 'Normal Conditions' on Used Lots

Situation
  • Big rigs set sales records last year in Canada
  • Buyers wanted to avoid 2007 engines w/ expensive emissions equipment
  • So trade-ins have been building up, but not to excessive levels
  • Experts say it's a buyers' market but low-mileage units going fast
Significant Points
  • Demand varies by region; not much demand in East but Alberta is hot
  • Many fleets are buying used to avoid purchasing 2007 truck
  • There's still a perceived difficulty w/ new engines
  • If new motors work out, then used market may soften
  • Experts say prices holding steady but will increase as inventory depletes
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: Today's Trucking, June 4, 2007

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7) BHPH Industry Takes Issue with Business Week Story

Situation
  • Cover story for BusinessWeek's May 21 issue spotlighted subprime industries
  • Suggested subprime businesses take advantage of working poor
  • Ken Shilson is founder of National Alliance of Buy-Here, Pay-Here Dealers
  • Says talked to reporter but remarks, charts about industry challenges not included
  • Claims reporters "basically don't understand the risks of the business"
  • Says unified approach required to change media's perception of BHPH industry
Significant Points
  • Shilson says tried to explain reasons for high interest rate contracts but quotes left out
  • Doesn't think arguing with media over such stories is very productive
  • Calls for training, education for both dealers, public
  • George Mason University professor defends subprime market for giving people options
  • Thinks story may be reaction to national concern over credit, spending
  • Suggests that subprime lenders should have better ways to compare different loans
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: Used Car News, June 4, 2007

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8) SUV Owners Turn to Internet to Sell Leases

Situation
  • LeaseTrader.com, swapalease.com are 2 major sites for selling vehicle leases
  • Seeing big growth as SUV owners look to get out of leases in face of rising gas prices
Significant Points
  • Edmunds.com's Alex Rosten has words of advice, caution
  • Research fees--membership, transaction, name switch, shipping, other
  • Sellers w/ vehicle far from contract mileage limit, attractive lease terms have best chance
  • Sellers w/ few allotted miles left, expensive lease terms should add cash incentives
  • Sites can be good places to find short term lease (year or less)
  • Beware: some ads listed by dealers, leasing companies, not 3rd parties
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: CNNMoney, June 8, 2007

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9) KBB Ponders Ties Between Resale Value, Fatality Rates

Situation
  • Kelley Blue Book looks at link between fatality rates, resale value
  • Sees that vehicles w/ lower fatality rates usually have higher resale value
Significant Points
  • KBB compared data from Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
  • Eliminated vehicles w/ high percentage of fleet sales
  • Minivans had highest correlation, specifically Honda Odyssey, Toyota Sienna
  • Top sedans include Honda Civic, Accord, VW Jetta
  • On low end, Kia Rio, Optima had low residual, high fatality
  • Vehicles like Honda CR-V, Land Rover Discovery have both high residuals, high fatality rates
Click Here for Full Digest and Source Article:

Sourced From: Auto Remarketing, May 31, 2007

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